Care Deserts UK 2026 — Lowest Care-Home Bed Capacity per Older Resident
Age-adjusted, beds-led analysis of care-home supply across English local authorities. Primary metric: active registered care-home beds per 100 residents aged 75+. "Care desert" bands are derived from the national distribution, not a fixed threshold.
What this ranking measures — and what it does not
This page ranks supply of CQC-registered care-home beds per 100 residents aged 75+. It is not a ranking of care quality, user satisfaction, or any judgement about a local authority's adult-social-care performance. Many factors outside a council's control (private-market provision, planning, demographics) shape these numbers. Sources: OHID Fingertips indicator 92490 (care-home beds per 100 aged 75+) and ONS mid-year population estimates. See the methodology page for the full source list, refresh cadence and limitations. If you believe the figure for a specific local authority is incorrect, please tell us.
Methodology in one sentence
We measure local care-home supply using active registered care-home beds per 100 residents aged 75 and over, then classify each local authority by its position in the national distribution. This is a better proxy for likely demand than counting homes per total population.
National distribution (beds per 100 aged 75+)
Median
8.9
Mean (sd)
8.88 (2.05)
Severe-undersupply ceiling (p10)
6.3
Well-supplied floor (p75)
10.3
Based on 151 local authorities with complete primary data (bed coverage ≥ 50% of active locations). Bands: severe undersupply = bottom decile; undersupply = bottom quartile; well supplied = top quartile.
30 most under-supplied local authorities (beds-led, age-adjusted)
Ranked by registered active care-home beds per 100 residents aged 75+, lowest first. Percentile rank is the LA’s position in the national distribution (0 = lowest, 100 = highest). Z-score is standard deviations from the mean.
| # | Local authority | Region | Pop. 75+ | Active beds | Beds /100 age 75+ | Percentile | Z-score | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hackney | London | 10,500 | 314 | 3.0 | 1 | -2.87 | Severe |
| 2 | Haringey | London | 12,200 | 375 | 3.1 | 1 | -2.82 | Severe |
| 3 | Southwark | London | 13,300 | 523 | 3.9 | 2 | -2.43 | Severe |
| 4 | Kensington and Chelsea | London | 10,200 | 443 | 4.3 | 3 | -2.24 | Severe |
| 5 | Westminster | London | 11,400 | 488 | 4.3 | 3 | -2.24 | Severe |
| 6 | Camden | London | 11,500 | 523 | 4.5 | 4 | -2.14 | Severe |
| 7 | Tower Hamlets | London | 8,100 | 387 | 4.8 | 5 | -1.99 | Severe |
| 8 | Newham | London | 11,700 | 595 | 5.1 | 5 | -1.85 | Severe |
| 9 | Brent | London | 18,700 | 974 | 5.2 | 6 | -1.80 | Severe |
| 10 | Hounslow | London | 15,600 | 885 | 5.7 | 7 | -1.55 | Severe |
| 11 | Lewisham | London | 14,600 | 905 | 6.2 | 9 | -1.31 | Severe |
| 12 | Thurrock | East of England | 11,652 | 728 | 6.2 | 9 | -1.31 | Severe |
| 13 | Westmorland and Furness | North West | 31,012 | 1,931 | 6.2 | 9 | -1.31 | Severe |
| 14 | Barking and Dagenham | London | 10,500 | 657 | 6.3 | 11 | -1.26 | Severe |
| 15 | Bromley | London | 29,600 | 1,857 | 6.3 | 11 | -1.26 | Severe |
| 16 | Cornwall | South West | 76,800 | 4,818 | 6.3 | 11 | -1.26 | Severe |
| 17 | Swindon | South West | 18,888 | 1,201 | 6.4 | 11 | -1.21 | Undersupply |
| 18 | Dorset | South West | 62,758 | 4,166 | 6.6 | 12 | -1.11 | Undersupply |
| 19 | Halton | North West | 11,145 | 747 | 6.7 | 13 | -1.06 | Undersupply |
| 20 | Ealing | London | 21,600 | 1,467 | 6.8 | 14 | -1.01 | Undersupply |
| 21 | Lambeth | London | 13,200 | 899 | 6.8 | 14 | -1.01 | Undersupply |
| 22 | Hammersmith and Fulham | London | 9,000 | 622 | 6.9 | 15 | -0.97 | Undersupply |
| 23 | Calderdale | Yorkshire & The Humber | 19,640 | 1,347 | 6.9 | 15 | -0.97 | Undersupply |
| 24 | Portsmouth | South East | 13,700 | 957 | 7.0 | 16 | -0.92 | Undersupply |
| 25 | Tameside | North West | 19,900 | 1,415 | 7.1 | 17 | -0.87 | Undersupply |
| 26 | West Berkshire | South East | 16,650 | 1,190 | 7.1 | 17 | -0.87 | Undersupply |
| 27 | Harrow | London | 20,200 | 1,461 | 7.2 | 19 | -0.82 | Undersupply |
| 28 | Cumberland | North West | 32,594 | 2,335 | 7.2 | 19 | -0.82 | Undersupply |
| 29 | Havering | London | 24,500 | 1,779 | 7.3 | 21 | -0.77 | Undersupply |
| 30 | Redbridge | London | 18,600 | 1,355 | 7.3 | 21 | -0.77 | Undersupply |
Cost is confounded by London and South East land and labour costs — lower supply does not mechanically cause higher prices, and London’s high property costs drive fees in parallel.
10 best-supplied local authorities
| # | Local authority | Region | Beds /100 age 75+ | Nursing /100 age 75+ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leicester | East Midlands | 14.0 | 3.2 | Well supplied |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | North East | 13.7 | 7.0 | Well supplied |
| 3 | Kingston upon Thames | London | 13.6 | 10.7 | Well supplied |
| 4 | Surrey | South East | 12.7 | 8.0 | Well supplied |
| 5 | Stoke-on-Trent | West Midlands | 12.6 | 7.0 | Well supplied |
| 6 | Croydon | London | 12.5 | 7.4 | Well supplied |
| 7 | Windsor and Maidenhead | South East | 12.4 | 9.7 | Well supplied |
| 8 | Brighton and Hove | South East | 12.3 | 6.7 | Well supplied |
| 9 | Newcastle upon Tyne | North East | 12.1 | 7.5 | Well supplied |
| 10 | Darlington | North East | 12.1 | 5.9 | Well supplied |
Cost vs supply (using the new primary metric)
Correlation between beds per 100 residents aged 75+ and weekly residential care cost, across 151 local authorities that have both a published cost and adequate bed coverage.
Pearson r = 0.008 between beds per 100 aged 75+ and weekly residential cost.
Bottom supply quartile averages £1,415/week vs £1,445/week in the top supply quartile. Cost is confounded by London and South East land and labour costs; treat this as descriptive, not causal.
Occupancy pressure (Capacity Tracker)
DHSC Capacity Tracker is a response-based sample, not a full stock count. We report it as pressure on existing stock — high occupancy at low bed supply is the worst combination for families trying to place a relative.
| Local authority | Beds /100 age 75+ | Occupancy % | Admittable vacancy % | Snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwark | 3.9 | 95.4% | 3.6% | 2026-05-14 |
| Lewisham | 6.2 | 95.3% | — | 2026-05-14 |
| Hounslow | 5.7 | 94.4% | 4.8% | 2026-05-14 |
| Enfield | 10.0 | 94.3% | 4.7% | 2026-05-14 |
| Lambeth | 6.8 | 94.3% | 4.2% | 2026-05-14 |
| Sutton | 8.1 | 94.0% | 3.2% | 2026-05-14 |
| Islington | 8.2 | 93.7% | 4.7% | 2026-05-14 |
| Thurrock | 6.2 | 93.4% | 5.5% | 2026-05-14 |
| Tower Hamlets | 4.8 | 93.3% | 3.7% | 2026-05-14 |
| Harrow | 7.2 | 92.9% | 4.7% | 2026-05-14 |
| Hillingdon | 8.2 | 92.9% | 5.5% | 2026-05-14 |
| Swindon | 6.4 | 92.7% | 6.0% | 2026-05-14 |
| Havering | 7.3 | 92.6% | 6.0% | 2026-05-14 |
| Greenwich | 7.4 | 92.4% | 6.7% | 2026-05-14 |
| Isle of Wight | 8.3 | 92.3% | 4.8% | 2026-05-14 |
| Haringey | 3.1 | 92.2% | 6.3% | 2026-05-14 |
| Southend-on-Sea | 9.8 | 92.2% | 7.0% | 2026-05-14 |
| Bromley | 6.3 | 92.1% | 6.9% | 2026-05-14 |
| Richmond upon Thames | 8.4 | 91.9% | 6.7% | 2026-05-14 |
| Plymouth | 9.8 | 91.7% | 5.7% | 2026-05-14 |
Top 20 by occupancy. “Admittable vacancy” is the share of beds that are empty and open to new residents — non-admittable vacancies are ring-fenced, closed, or in isolation and do not help a family seeking placement.
Legacy secondary metric — homes per 10,000 total population
Retained for continuity. Not the primary measure: it treats every home as equivalent regardless of size, and dilutes the denominator with residents too young to drive care demand.
| # | Local authority | Total population | Active homes | Homes /10k (legacy) | Beds /100 age 75+ (primary) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tower Hamlets | 310,300 | 10 | 0.3 | 4.8 |
| 2 | Westminster | 204,400 | 9 | 0.4 | 4.3 |
| 3 | Hackney | 259,200 | 13 | 0.5 | 3.0 |
| 4 | Southwark | 307,700 | 14 | 0.5 | 3.9 |
| 5 | Camden | 210,100 | 12 | 0.6 | 4.5 |
| 6 | Hammersmith and Fulham | 183,200 | 11 | 0.6 | 6.9 |
| 7 | Newham | 351,100 | 23 | 0.7 | 5.1 |
| 8 | Islington | 216,600 | 18 | 0.8 | 8.2 |
| 9 | Kensington and Chelsea | 143,400 | 11 | 0.8 | 4.3 |
| 10 | Wandsworth | 327,500 | 26 | 0.8 | 8.6 |
Bands
Frequently asked questions
What is a care desert?
Why beds instead of number of homes?
Why per 100 aged 75+?
Which area has the lowest bed capacity?
Data sources: CQC Care Directory (Open Government Licence v3.0) for registered care-home locations and bed counts, filtered to active non-dormant locations. ONS 2022 mid-year population estimates for 65+ and 75+ denominators. NHS England ASC-FR for residential and nursing weekly unit costs. OHID Fingertips indicators 92490 and 92493 used as validation benchmarks. See the full methodology for data dates, QA checks, and known gaps.